Economic Information, Decision, and Prediction: Selected by M. Marschak

By M. Marschak

The papers of Jacob Marschak which keep on with in those volumes are a unprecedented mix of unique and fruitful departures in monetary and social suggestion, remarkable readability of exposition, and sensitivity to the values of prior paintings or even competing traditions. They make us wonder alike at their style, their volume, and their caliber. yet they don't, on the other hand, totally replicate Marschak's contributions to the improvement of social technological know-how. He has had an strange effect as one that workouts management. In a proper, organizational experience, this function has been take place in his ability as Director of the Cowles fee for learn in Economics, then on the collage of Chicago, in that organization's most efficient and influential interval, and later in his significant position within the Western administration technology Institute, on the college of California at la. i will be able to converse from first-hand wisdom concerning the first. His distinct capacities are, first, the popularity of promising new techniques and of promising younger students, and, moment, getting his colleagues to hitch him in constructing the tips and regarding them absolutely within the helpful initiatives. there has been an strange mixture of power and humility in his tools; a show of strength in pushing the paintings alongside yet a willingness, nearly an insistence, on treating even the main junior affiliate as a completely equivalent colleague in highbrow improve­ ment, whose feedback of himself was once to be inspired. His management has been exercised within the absence of formal positions.

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Additional resources for Economic Information, Decision, and Prediction: Selected Essays: Volume I Part I Economics of Decision (Theory and Decision Library)

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The 'love of danger' defined as nonmonotonicity of the utility function for prospects is to be carefully distinguished from the phenomenon alluded to in Part III: whether high variance of random income (or of the random quantity of any commodity) is or is not desirable depends on whether the marginal utility of mean income (or commodity) happens to be increasing rather than decreasing. 24 The statement 'a man may desire to gamble' has thus two meanings. RATIONAL BEHAVIOR, UNCERTAIN PROSPECTS 35 If it means that the sign of the risk-discount is indefinite, the statement is consistent with rational behavior as defined by the four postulates.

The utility index of prospects reaches in this case its maximum at a point which is not a comer of domain A. ) 47. Such behavior contradicts the monotonicity Theorem 6, and therefore at least one of our postulates. It is, therefore, in general inconsistent with the existence of linear utility functions for prospects. It also follows that the lover of danger does not, in general, maximize the expected value of the utility index. Not for him the linear utility functions of prospects, and the measurable and 'manageable' (Part utility indices.

2:1) P = P(X) = P(X; S). { of all possible outcomes X be completely ordered by a relation 9 ('read: as good as or better than'). {, Then u(X) is called the utility of X. It is a random variable whose distribution depends on the distribution P and hence on the strategy S. 2:3) I Eu(X) P(X; S) = Jlu(S), say, 41 MAXIMIZING MORAL EXPECT A TION is called the moral expectation of X. Define a space 9' whose elements S represent possible strategies. 2:4) JliS*) > Jl,,(S') where S' is any element of 9' distinct from S*.

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